Politics is not mathematics. You cannot compute exactly the consequences of a Brexit. There are several legitimate views on that. In camp and Out camp in Britain are leading a war of arguments these days. The Remain campaign is drawing a horror scenario if Britain gets out of the EU. Let’s take a closer look at the validity of some of these allegations.
If Britain leaves the EU, the first and foremost question would be if Britain nevertheless can participate in the common European market some way. The Remain campaign argues that if Britain leaves, it would took a decade to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU. In the meantime the British economy was seeing a phase of insecurity. If we look at the realities in Europe then we are to assume that the EU commission will try to avoid such insecurity despite warnings that EU commission wants to punish Britain. I think within a few years Britain could get duty-free access to the European market again. Certainly, Britain will have to make concessions to obtain this goal, but the British ship will not sink as fear-mongerers from the Remain campaign are insinuating.
Next problem is the job question. Indeed, leaving the EU could cost Britain some jobs, but also being in the EU empirically costs jobs. It’s crucial how you analyse the situation and the prospects. To be open, nobody is able to really predict what will happen. To take an optimistic stance, it is quite possible that a Britain outside the EU experiences a mental and economic boom. When you have to stand on your own feet again, you possibly unleash new power to deal with problems.
On the other hand, Britain will see severe problems concerning foreign relations. A Brexit will disrupt the meticulously negotiated diplomatic network between European states. Also the United States will be not amused if Britain is no more a part of the EU. British power and recognition could diminish because Britain is no part of big EU anymore. Nevertheless, the world will get accustomed to an independent Britain and if its power really diminishes in fact depends on British politics and the role it choses to compensate lacking influence within the EU. Surely, an independent Britain will confound European politics but this needn’t be harmful to a fossilized continent. Risks are not necessarily a bad thing, but if you an adherent of stability at any price, you will assess the situation differently.
If I were British, I would vote in favour of EU. Britain has so much advantages from being a member of the EU and is already playing a special role. Britain for example doesn’t take part in the Schengen treaty, so that it has nearly full control over its borders.On the other hand, it is absurd to draw doomsday scenarios if Britain is leaving the EU. It will survive. If better or worser in the end, nobody really knows because politics even is not mathematics.
by Dr. Christian Weilmeier